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SPC Dec 21, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


Thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast into the central and
southern Plains on Saturday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently

An upper low is forecast to begin the period over eastern AZ before
devolving further into an open wave while continuing northeastward
over the remainder of the Southwest and into the southern/central
High Plains. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly
in the wake of the lead wave, progressing southeastward across the
Great Basin and into the Four Corner. This overall evolution will
result in a persistence of upper troughing over the Rockies and High
Plains, with southwesterly flow aloft being maintained across the
southern Plains.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and
ahead of the southern-stream upper low, from eastern AZ across NM
and into far west TX. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the afternoon across the southern High
Plains as the low moves northeastward. Cool surface temperatures and
modest low-level moisture will temper buoyancy, but enhanced
mid-level flow will contribute to enough shear for storm
organization. As a result, any more robust, sustained updrafts may
be able to produce hail. However, the current expectation is for the
limited buoyancy to keep the severe potential too isolated to
introduce any severe probabilities. 

Showers and thunderstorm will continue to expand eastward into more
of the southern Plains during the evening and overnight, but limited
buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential with this
activity as well.

..Mosier.. 12/21/2023

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