Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 21, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 21, 2023 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Friday from southern California across much of the Southwest. Some hail and strong/gusty winds may occur over parts of southern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southwest... A closed upper low initially centered off the coast of southern CA will move eastward Friday across the northern Baja Peninsula and lower CO River Valley. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature and associated mid-level moisture will support showers and thunderstorms from southern CA into much of the Southwest through the period. Widespread cloudiness and limited low-level moisture should hinder the development of much instability. But modest daytime heating and cooling mid-level temperatures as the upper trough/low advances eastward may aid weak buoyancy across parts of southern AZ and vicinity by Friday afternoon. Assuming this weak instability can develop, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough/low will support deep-layer shear increasing to 35-50 kt by late Friday afternoon and early evening. Some guidance shows the potential for a supercell or two to track northeastward from northern Mexico across parts of southern AZ and perhaps into far southwest NM. If this occurs, then isolated hail will be possible given cold mid-level temperatures and favorable effective bulk shear. The potential for occasional strong/gusty winds may also exist where the boundary layer can become well mixed as low-level lapse rates steepen and modest diurnal heating occurs. Overall confidence in severe potential across parts of the Southwest Friday remains low, as instability is expected to remain rather weak. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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