Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 22, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 22, 2023 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing hail are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Southern High Plains... A large-scale upper trough will extend from the Canadian Rockies to northern Mexico on Saturday. Within the broader region of upper troughing, a closed low over AZ will weaken as the southern branch of the trough shifts east across the Four Corners and into the central/southern High Plains. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the southern Plains, and vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection. Low-level moisture will remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front from far eastern NM into western TX. This will limit stronger destabilization, especially given a lack of heating due to ongoing showers/thunderstorms Saturday morning an persistent cloudiness. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing midlevel moisture will support around 500-750 MLCAPE by late afternoon into the evening hours. Increasing large-scale ascent will foster thunderstorm development along the surface trough/cool front by late afternoon/early evening. Modest instability and favorable vertical shear may be sufficient for a few thunderstorm cores to become deep enough, and sustained for a sufficient amount of time, to support marginally severe hail from late afternoon through the evening. ..Leitman.. 12/22/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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