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SPC Dec 22, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms producing hail are possible across the
southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Southern High Plains...

A large-scale upper trough will extend from the Canadian Rockies to
northern Mexico on Saturday. Within the broader region of upper
troughing, a closed low over AZ will weaken as the southern branch
of the trough shifts east across the Four Corners and into the
central/southern High Plains. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of
this feature will overspread the southern Plains, and vertical shear
will be favorable for organized convection. 

Low-level moisture will remain modest, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front
from far eastern NM into western TX. This will limit stronger
destabilization, especially given a lack of heating due to ongoing
showers/thunderstorms Saturday morning an persistent cloudiness.
Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing midlevel
moisture will support around 500-750 MLCAPE by late afternoon into
the evening hours. Increasing large-scale ascent will foster
thunderstorm development along the surface trough/cool front by late
afternoon/early evening. Modest instability and favorable vertical
shear may be sufficient for a few thunderstorm cores to become deep
enough, and sustained for a sufficient amount of time, to support
marginally severe hail from late afternoon through the evening.

..Leitman.. 12/22/2023

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