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SPC Dec 22, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

Medium-range forecast guidance is in fairly good agreement for much
of the Day 4-8 period. General consensus is that a closed upper low
will develop over the Midwest and gradually shift east/northeast
toward the Great Lakes with time. Large-scale upper troughing will
persist east of the Mississippi River through Day 8/Fri. At the same
time, an upper ridge will develop and shift east across the western
half of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure and attendant cold
front will develop east in tandem with the upper low/trough over the
Midwest and eastern states. Thunderstorms will be possible across
the Southeast Days 4-5/Mon-Tue ahead of the front, but weak
large-scale ascent and poor thermodynamics will likely preclude
severe potential. In the wake of the cold front, high pressure over
the Rockies and Plains will lead to stable conditions.

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