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SPC Dec 22, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday.

...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley...

An upper trough will pivot east across the southern Plains toward
the Ozarks and Lower MS Valley on Sunday. At the surface, a cold
front will develop southeast across the central and southern Plains
during the afternoon/evening, with a Pacific front shifting east
across central TX early in the day ahead of the synoptic front. A
line and/or clusters of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday
morning across parts of Oklahoma into northern/central TX ahead of
these surface boundaries. Some uncertainty in the eastward extent of
the Pacific front over central TX exists Sunday morning. Instability
will be generally weak, limited by surface dewpoints in the 50s to
low 60s across central TX. However, vertically veering low-level
wind profiles with result in somewhat enlarged and curved hodographs
in the 0-3 km layer. A 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet the first
few hours of the period will also contribute to 0-1 km SRH around
100-200 m2/s2. This could conditionally support a low-end tornado
risk. However, forecast guidance varies considerably in the quality
of low-level thermodynamics. Given this uncertainty in the mesoscale
environment, coupled with the climatologically unfavorable time of
day (approx. 12-15z), low severe probabilities will not be
introduced across parts of central TX at this time.

Thunderstorm activity will spread east over the ArkLaTex through the
day and toward the Lower MS Valley during the evening/overnight
hours. While better low-level moisture will be present across these
areas ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front, poor lapse rates
and weak instability will limit severe potential.

..Leitman.. 12/22/2023

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