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SPC Dec 22, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and
strong/gusty winds appear possible across parts of the southern High
Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Southern High Plains...
Large-scale upper troughing will encompass much of the western
states on Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected
to move eastward from the Southwest across the southern/central High
Plans through the period. Large-scale ascent preceding this
shortwave trough will encourage the development of a lee surface low
across eastern CO through the day, with the low then ejecting
eastward across KS Saturday night through early Sunday morning.
Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of the
surface low and a Pacific cold front advancing eastward across the
southern High Plains.

Widespread cloudiness and limited daytime heating should temper the
degree of instability that can develop through Saturday afternoon
across the southern High Plains. Even so, cooling mid-level
temperatures and somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft ahead of the
upper trough should aid in at least weak destabilization across
parts of far eastern NM into west TX and the TX Panhandle by late
Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE generally ranging from 500-750 J/kg
should prove adequate in tandem with strong deep-layer shear of
40-50 kt to support organized updrafts.

Convection that forms along or just ahead of the Pacific cold front
may be initially discrete and pose a threat for isolated severe hail
given the favorable shear. With time, upscale growth into one or
more clusters appears probable through Saturday evening as
thunderstorms spread east-northeastward across west TX and the TX
Panhandle. Even though low-level lapse rates should remain modest
with limited daytime heating, some threat for strong to locally
severe wind gusts may still exist as this mode transition occurs.

Somewhat greater low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints in the
upper 50s to low 60s, should be in place farther east into OK and
north/central TX. One or more thunderstorm clusters should move
across these areas Saturday night into early Sunday morning. While
both low-level and deep-layer shear appear favorable for organized
convection, poor lapse rates, weak boundary-layer instability, and
some MLCIN should tend to limit the threat for surface-based
thunderstorms. Still, forecast instability trends will be closely
monitored for locations east of the current Marginal Risk.

..Gleason.. 12/22/2023

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