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SPC Dec 26, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z


A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mid
Atlantic during the day on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep upper low will fill slightly as it moves slowly east across
the lower MS Valley, with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft over
the Plains, MS Valley and Southeast. Relatively cool air will remain
over much of the Plains with northerly winds extending into the
western Gulf of Mexico, but a weak surface low will develop over NC
in a zone of warm southeasterlies well ahead of the upper low.

Extensive clouds and precipitation will limit destabilization as
well as low-level lapse rates over NC and southern VA where MUCAPE
may approach 500 J/kg. However, this will be sufficient to support
scattered convection within the larger area of precipitation, by
virtue of cool midlevel temperatures and mainly early in the day
prior to drier air pushing in from the west as 850 mb winds veer. 

While forecast soundings over NC do show surface-based parcel
potential, real boundary-layer buoyancy will be limited by the poor
lapse rates/saturated profiles in a weak forcing regime. Therefore,
despite veering winds with height and effective SRH values of
200-300 m2/s2, severe weather remains unlikely.

..Jewell.. 12/26/2023

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