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SPC Dec 26, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

No changes are required to the existing outlook, with only general
thunderstorms expected over parts of the Southeast.

..Jewell.. 12/26/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023/

A large, mature mid-latitude cyclone is centered over the eastern
NE/KS border vicinity. This cyclone is expected to move gradually
into MO, while becoming increasingly vertically stacked with time.
Cold and dry air mass associated with this cyclone will dominant the
sensible weather across much of the CONUS. 

The only exception is from the coastal Southeast through the
Mid-Atlantic States. Here, an extensive warm conveyor, originating
over central Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico and splitting
over the Mid-Atlantic, will contribute to broad isentropic ascent.
Strongest ascent is ongoing over the SC vicinity, where enhanced
low-level southeasterly flow is augmenting the modest ascent within
the warm conveyor. This low-level flow is forecast to continue
throughout the period while gradually shifting northward, resulting
in prolonged isentropic ascent and a continued threat for isolated
thunderstorms embedded within the broader precipitation shield.
Highest thunderstorm coverage is expected over the western
Carolinas. Some favorable low-level shear may exist across the
central/eastern Carolinas, but this shear should be displaced west
of any surface-based buoyancy, limiting the severe potential.

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