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SPC Dec 27, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

A large deep-layer cyclone centered over the mid MS Valley will
slowly move east through tonight.  An embedded mid-level disturbance
will rotate through the outer orbit of the large-scale cyclone and
move from the lower MS Valley to Long Island during the period. 
Weak buoyancy will primarily be relegated to the coastal areas of
the Mid-Atlantic states, but it may develop as far inland in pockets
across the central Appalachians during the day, as a surface low
migrates north near the coast.  As a result, scattered showers and a
few weak thunderstorms are possible.  The limited instability will
likely preclude severe thunderstorm activity.  Farther west, a
potent mid-level trough/closed low west of the Pacific Northwest
will feature an impulse moving into the coastal areas of northern CA
and coastal OR/WA during the day.  Cold 500-mb temperatures will
probably yield 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE and a few lightning flashes with
the deeper convection as it moves ashore.  Elsewhere, tranquil
conditions will prevail across a large part of the Interior West
across the southern U.S. and influenced by surface high pressure.

..Smith/Bentley.. 12/27/2023

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