Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 27, 2023 Administrators Posted December 27, 2023 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, the dominant feature over the central/eastern CONUS remains a large synoptic-scale cyclone, initially centered over northwestern MO. Associated cyclonic flow extends from the Four Corners region to the central/southern Appalachians, and from the Upper Great Lakes to northern MX. Its 500-mb low is expected to pivot southward then eastward over southern IL by the end of the period. A broad warm conveyor lingers well east of the low, near the central Atlantic Coast and northward over the central Appalachians region. Weak, elevated buoyancy will decrease northward, with 12Z soundings showing MUCAPE around 600 J/kg at MHX, but less than 300 J/kg at RNK. This may support isolated, episodic thunder in a band of embedded convection moving eastward to northeastward over the area today into this evening. The surface cold front is offshore from the southern Atlantic Coast, though a frontal-wave low -- analyzed at 11Z just offshore from CHS -- should move northeastward near the NC coastline through this evening. However, favorable warm-sector buoyancy/shear for severe is expected to stay over the Atlantic. A temporarily stalled segment of the low-level frontal zone may undergo wave cyclogenesis over the southeastern Gulf this evening and tonight, as a weak southern-stream perturbation approaches from MX. Sufficient lift, elevated instability and moisture should exist over Gulf waters to support thunderstorms over the central/east-central Gulf today and the east-central/southeastern Gulf tonight. Some of this activity may reach portions of the FL Keys before 12Z tomorrow. Farther west, moisture-channel imagery showed a synoptic-scale cyclone over the northeast Pacific, centered near 43N137W. This feature is expected to move northeastward and weaken today, while remaining offshore. However, a basal shortwave trough should pivot northeastward across the coastal Pacific Northwest. Related DCVA/cooling aloft may provide sufficient destabilization, atop weak low/middle-level moisture, to support thunder potential from portions of northern CA up the coast of OR/WA. ..Edwards/Dean.. 12/27/2023 Read more View the full article Quote
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