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SPC Dec 27, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z


Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the Florida Keys and far
southern Florida early on Thursday. Severe storms appear unlikely.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large, deep-layer cyclone will move east across the lower MS to OH
Valleys, with a broad area of strong southwesterlies aloft across
the Southeast. While high pressure will maintain stable conditions
over much of the CONUS, an unstable warm sector will exist ahead of
the cold front as it moves from the far southeast Gulf of Mexico
toward the Bahamas.

Ahead of an embedded shortwave trough within the southwest flow
regime, a surface low is forecast to move across the FL Straits,
south of a cold front which will continue to push south. It appears
unlikely that the low will be strong enough to counteract the
undercutting cool/stable air mass, but the boundary could stall
briefly just offshore until the low passes. The most likely result
is for elevated instability to be present atop the cooler air mass,
supporting scattered thunderstorms with several hundred J/kg MUCAPE.
Lift will be enhanced by the right-entrance region of the upper jet
as well as warm advection around 850 mb. 

Wind profiles will favor supercells over the Straits, but the severe
risk is expected to be mitigated over land due to the post-frontal
air mass/decoupled boundary layer, rendering low-level shear

..Jewell.. 12/27/2023

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