Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 27, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 27, 2023 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the Florida Keys and far southern Florida early on Thursday. Severe storms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large, deep-layer cyclone will move east across the lower MS to OH Valleys, with a broad area of strong southwesterlies aloft across the Southeast. While high pressure will maintain stable conditions over much of the CONUS, an unstable warm sector will exist ahead of the cold front as it moves from the far southeast Gulf of Mexico toward the Bahamas. Ahead of an embedded shortwave trough within the southwest flow regime, a surface low is forecast to move across the FL Straits, south of a cold front which will continue to push south. It appears unlikely that the low will be strong enough to counteract the undercutting cool/stable air mass, but the boundary could stall briefly just offshore until the low passes. The most likely result is for elevated instability to be present atop the cooler air mass, supporting scattered thunderstorms with several hundred J/kg MUCAPE. Lift will be enhanced by the right-entrance region of the upper jet as well as warm advection around 850 mb. Wind profiles will favor supercells over the Straits, but the severe risk is expected to be mitigated over land due to the post-frontal air mass/decoupled boundary layer, rendering low-level shear ineffective. ..Jewell.. 12/27/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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