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SPC Dec 28, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the Florida
Keys and far south Florida today. Severe thunderstorms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central and eastern
states today. A broad area of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level
winds will remain over the Southeast through tonight. A
low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly northeastward today across the Gulf of Mexico and FL. A
remnant cold front located over the FL Straits should tend to remain
south of the Keys and south FL as weak surface cyclogenesis occurs
ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with most guidance
showing northerly low-level winds prevailing across these areas.

Still, enough MUCAPE should be in place to support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this morning. Some guidance shows a
loosely organized band/cluster of convection approaching the FL Keys
at the start of the period (around 12Z). This activity should
generally remain elevated, especially with northward extent into
south FL. Even so, occasional strong/gusty winds may occur over
nearshore waters as these thunderstorms move quickly eastward over
the FL Straits and towards the Bahamas through the day.

Thunderstorm potential across the remainder of the CONUS appears
minimal today and tonight.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 12/28/2023

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