Jump to content
  • Forum Image

SPC Dec 28, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Recommended Posts

  • Administrators
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z


No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S.
through tonight.

A large, long-lived, nearly stacked, mid/upper-level low is evident
in moisture-channel imagery over southern IL, with expansive
cyclonic flow still apparent from the central/southern Rockies to
the central/southern Appalachians, and the Great Lakes to the Gulf. 
The 500-mb low should wobble erratically through the period while
taking a net eastward path up the lower Ohio Valley region.  Just
outside the southern rim of the gyre's closed isohypses, a couple
southern-stream shortwave troughs are apparent over the central and
southeastern Gulf.  In response, and along a surface boundary that
long has moved offshore from the Atlantic Coast, a frontal-wave low
was analyzed at 11Z over the western Straits of Florida, with a warm
front extending eastward, south of the Keys and across the Bahamas. 

The low and front should remain just south of the Keys into early
afternoon, as the low ripples eastward to east-northeastward toward
the area between Bimini and Andros Island.  A small complex of
thunderstorms has been apparent for a few hours near the low, moving
eastward to the south of the Dry Tortugas and Marquesas Keys.  The
expanding northern fringes of this activity north of the low --
and/or additional convection developing in the warm-advection regime
farther downshear and north of the Straits boundary -- will pose
some lightning potential across the Keys and southernmost parts of
the peninsula through midday.  Around 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE,
occasionally extending into icing layers suitable for lightning,
should be present north of the boundary, before the leading
shortwave trough passes.

..Edwards/Dean.. 12/28/2023

Read more

View the full article

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Who's Online   0 Members, 0 Anonymous, 3 Guests (See full list)

    • There are no registered users currently online

  • Create New...