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SPC Dec 29, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z


The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through

...01Z Update...
A large, vigorous short wave trough has emerged from a strong, zonal
mid/upper jet extending across the southern mid-latitude western
through central Pacific.  However, models suggest that this feature,
and an associated surface cyclone, will slowly begin to weaken while
gradually progressing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific,
toward the Pacific coast, through 12Z Friday.  

With the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling forecast to
remain well offshore through the remainder of this period (and
generally not forecast to reach Oregon/California coastal areas
until tomorrow evening), appreciable boundary-layer destabilization
appears unlikely.  Models do suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection and moistening may contribute to an inland spreading
band of weak elevated destabilization across northern California and
southern Oregon coastal areas around or after 29/08-10Z.  However, a
combination of weak mid/upper forcing for upward vertical motion and
relatively warm layers aloft appear to preclude an appreciable risk
for convection capable of producing lightning.

..Kerr.. 12/29/2023

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