Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 29, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 29, 2023 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation today, but showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near southern Oregon through northern and central California coastal areas this evening through early Saturday. ...Discussion... A significant short wave trough, which has emerged from a strong, zonal mid/upper jet extending across the southern mid-latitude western through central Pacific, maintains considerable strength as it slowly progresses across the eastern Pacific. However, models indicate considerable deformation and weakening of this feature as it continues eastward into an amplified split flow, which includes building large-scale mid/upper ridging across and inland of the Pacific coast. While an initially broad and deep, associated occluding cyclone is forecast to weaken while migrating north-northeastward into areas offshore of the British Columbia coast, models indicate that the trailing front will advance inland across the Pacific coast. Based on forecast soundings and other model output, relatively warm layers in mid/upper levels probably will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning along and ahead of the surface front. However, in the post-frontal regime, the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling (including 500 mb temperatures approaching and falling below -24 C) may begin contributing to thermodynamic profiles more conducive to weak low-topped thunderstorm activity by this evening, near southern Oregon/northern California coastal areas. A similar environment may gradually develop southward near central California coastal through 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 12/29/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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