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SPC Dec 29, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z


The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
nation today, but showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
near southern Oregon through northern and central California coastal
areas this evening through early Saturday.

A significant short wave trough, which has emerged from a strong,
zonal mid/upper jet extending across the southern mid-latitude
western through central Pacific, maintains considerable strength as
it slowly progresses across the eastern Pacific.  However, models
indicate considerable deformation and weakening of this feature as
it continues eastward into an amplified split flow, which includes
building large-scale mid/upper ridging across and inland of the
Pacific coast.

While an initially broad and deep, associated occluding cyclone is
forecast to weaken while migrating north-northeastward into areas
offshore of the British Columbia coast, models indicate that the
trailing front will advance inland across the Pacific coast.  Based
on forecast soundings and other model output, relatively warm layers
in mid/upper levels probably will minimize the risk for convection
capable of producing lightning along and ahead of the surface front.
However, in the post-frontal regime, the leading edge of the
stronger mid-level cooling (including 500 mb temperatures
approaching and falling below -24 C) may begin contributing to
thermodynamic profiles more conducive to weak low-topped
thunderstorm activity by this evening, near southern Oregon/northern
California coastal areas.  A similar environment may gradually
develop southward near central California coastal through 12Z

..Kerr.. 12/29/2023

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