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SPC Dec 29, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper pattern is forecast through the extended
forecast period, with multiple shortwave troughs advancing eastward
across the CONUS. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move
from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern Plains
from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. With a cold frontal intrusion
expected into the northern Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture return
ahead of this upper trough should remain rather limited. While some
potential for mainly elevated thunderstorms is apparent across parts
of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, severe thunderstorms appear
unlikely owing to the weak instability forecast.

Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this
shortwave trough will merge with another upper trough and amplify as
it moves quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast
from Day 6/Wednesday into Day 7/Thursday. With an associated surface
low progged to scrape along or just south of the Gulf Coast, severe
potential will likewise tend to remain offshore where greater
low-level moisture should exist. Another upper trough/low may
advance quickly eastward from the Southwest across the southern
Plains and lower MS Valley late next week. But, the lack of
appreciable low-level moisture over land suggests that overall
severe potential should remain low through Day 8/Friday.

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