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SPC Dec 29, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Fri Dec 29 2023

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
Lower 48 states.

Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a potent mid- to
upper-level trough near -130 deg W moving east towards the West
Coast.  This large-scale trough will reach the CA coast by early
Saturday morning.  Cold-air advection in the mid levels associated
with the approaching trough and increased large-scale forcing for
ascent, will favor the development of showers and a few
thunderstorms moving ashore from Point Conception to southwest OR. 
Pockets of scant instability will likely limit both thunderstorm
coverage/intensity.  Elsewhere across the contiguous U.S., surface
high pressure will influence conditions and be hostile for
thunderstorm activity.

..Smith/Marsh.. 12/29/2023

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