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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z


Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited on Sunday
across most of the country, though localized concerns may emerge
across parts of the southern High Plains. The dry air mass currently
in place across the Southwest and southern High Plains will largely
remain in place over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, the upper low
currently moving onshore across CA is forecast to reach the southern
Rockies by around peak heating Sunday afternoon. Westerly mid-level
winds are forecast to strengthen as result, but the lack of an
appreciable mixed layer over the southern Rockies will likely
modulate the depth of boundary-layer mixing and subsequently the
degree of downward momentum transfer. Additionally, the arrival of a
weak cold front (currently moving south across the northern Plains
as of early Saturday morning) and building surface high pressure
across the southern Plains should be a limiting factor for strong
gradient winds. Consequently, the strongest wind gusts should
manifest along, and in the lee of, more prominent terrain features.
Recent ensemble guidance appears to capture this trend well with
high probabilities for winds above 20 mph noted from the Sacramento
Mountains in southern NM to the Davis Mountains in southwest TX.
Given the antecedent dry conditions, localized elevated fire weather
conditions appear probable. However, the limited extent of the
threat and limited fuel status (ERC values near to below the 50th
percentile) preclude highlights at this time.

..Moore.. 12/30/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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