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SPC Dec 31, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z


Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt
mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico
and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should
remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through
the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich
low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a
strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening
across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to
support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will
probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface
front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night
as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern
LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally
100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast.

..Gleason.. 12/31/2023

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