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SPC Dec 31, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will
move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from
Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with
another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low
should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame.
With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined
along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential
over land appears low.

Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the
southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next
weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front
intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the
northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time
frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture
should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe
potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely
monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper
trough described above.

Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may
amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the
southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day
8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to
advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS
Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably
be delayed until after next weekend.

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