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SPC Dec 31, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely through early New Year's Day.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed.

..Wendt.. 12/31/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/

...Synopsis...
Within a split flow regime, a series of southern stream shortwave
troughs will progress eastward from off the southern CA coast to TX.
 A modifying air mass will spread northward over the western Gulf of
Mexico to the TX coast by late tonight, where weak buoyancy will
develop.  However, thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be
particularly favorable for charge separation inland of a weak
coastal trough, with isolated showers/convection expected to remain
too shallow for lightning production.

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