Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 1 Administrators Share Posted January 1 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain confined to portions of the Southwest late tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential generally remains low for today and tonight across much of the country with the exception of the southern AZ/NM border. A compact shortwave trough off the southern CA coast will move inland through the day, reaching AZ/NM by early Tuesday morning. Cool temperatures aloft and broad-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low will promote mid-level destabilization heading into the overnight hours. Despite a substantial dry layer in place across the region, advected PWAT imagery shows higher-quality moisture in the 850-700 mb layer that was not sampled by 00 UTC soundings and should move inland with the low. Consequently, sufficiently lift, moisture, and destabilization should be in place for at least isolated lightning flashes. To the east, a positively-tilted upper trough over the Midwest will gradually shift east over the next 24 hours as shortwave ridging builds across the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build across the Plains and mid-MS River Valley as a cold front pushes south into the Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning flashes are possible along the TX Gulf Coast this morning as the front moves offshore, but an early frontal passage offset from peak diurnal warming, coupled with marginal lapse-rates and dry air aloft, casts doubt on the lightning potential over land. ..Moore.. 01/01/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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