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SPC Jan 1, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z


Thunderstorm potential will remain confined to portions of the
Southwest late tonight.

Thunderstorm potential generally remains low for today and tonight
across much of the country with the exception of the southern AZ/NM
border. A compact shortwave trough off the southern CA coast will
move inland through the day, reaching AZ/NM by early Tuesday
morning. Cool temperatures aloft and broad-scale ascent associated
with the approaching upper low will promote mid-level
destabilization heading into the overnight hours. Despite a
substantial dry layer in place across the region, advected PWAT
imagery shows higher-quality moisture in the 850-700 mb layer that
was not sampled by 00 UTC soundings and should move inland with the
low. Consequently, sufficiently lift, moisture, and destabilization
should be in place for at least isolated lightning flashes. 

To the east, a positively-tilted upper trough over the Midwest will
gradually shift east over the next 24 hours as shortwave ridging
builds across the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will
continue to build across the Plains and mid-MS River Valley as a
cold front pushes south into the Gulf of Mexico. A few lightning
flashes are possible along the TX Gulf Coast this morning as the
front moves offshore, but an early frontal passage offset from peak
diurnal warming, coupled with marginal lapse-rates and dry air
aloft, casts doubt on the lightning potential over land.

..Moore.. 01/01/2024

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