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SPC Jan 1, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z


Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southern Louisiana.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-65 kt
mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico
and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should
remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through
the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich
low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints) over the
western and northern Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening
southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts
of south/central TX should aid in enough elevated moisture to
support weak MUCAPE across these areas.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop beginning
Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico as ascent preceding the upper trough
overspreads the southern Plains. This convection should remain
elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of
TX and eventually southern LA. Severe thunderstorms are not expected
for this region given generally 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE forecast, even
though deep-layer shear should be strong.

Farther west, occasional lighting flashes may be noted with
low-topped convection moving onshore along/near the northern CA
Coast in association with an eastward-moving upper trough, mainly
from late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning.

..Gleason.. 01/01/2024

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