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SPC Jan 1, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is expected to remain low on Day 4/Thursday as a
surface cold front clears central/south FL and high pressure
dominates much of the central/eastern states. A progressive upper
pattern will likely continue across the CONUS through the extended
forecast period, with another upper trough forecast to move from the
Southwest over the southern Plains and eventually the Southeast from
Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday. While low-level moisture should
remain fairly limited over land, there may be some potential for
surface-based thunderstorms along/near the TX Coast Friday
afternoon/evening, and from the central Gulf Coast to FL/GA on
Saturday. Predictability regarding instability being sufficient for
a severe threat remains low across these areas, but trends will be
monitored.

Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough
will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday
across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over
the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of
low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS
Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There
are still some timing differences in the progression of this
pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still,
both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe
threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the
lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will
be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and
possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater
predictability.

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