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SPC Jan 1, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a split upper flow regime
over western North America.  A mid-level low initially near the
CA/Baja California border will move east along the international
border and reach NM/Chihuahua by early Tuesday morning.  Strong
mid-level forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid
levels will seemingly support an increased chance for convection
late this evening over southeastern AZ.  This corridor of increased
shower/potential thunderstorm activity will spread east overnight
into southwestern NM.  Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are possible
early this morning over mainly the shelf waters of the upper coast
of TX and southwestern LA.  Dry/stable conditions over the remaining
portion of the Lower 48 states will be hostile to thunderstorm
development.

..Smith.. 01/01/2024

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