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SPC Jan 1, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United
States through Tuesday morning.

An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an
upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper
low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast
Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead
of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level
lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level
moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make
conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona
and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental
United States through 12Z on Tuesday.

..Broyles.. 01/01/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/

A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to
Chihuahua by the end of the period.  Sufficiently steep lapse rates
and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the
mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated
thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into
southwest NM.  Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes
over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold
front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters.

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