Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 1 Administrators Share Posted January 1 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States through Tuesday morning. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move through the central U.S. today, as an upper-level low moves into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the upper low, a zone of strong large-scale ascent will move across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico from this evening to tonight. Ahead of the system, a southeast-to-northwest corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place. This feature, combined with mid-level moisture associated with the upper-level system, will make conditions favorable for thunderstorms across far southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico tonight. No severe threat is expected. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States through 12Z on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Jan 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from northern Baja to Chihuahua by the end of the period. Sufficiently steep lapse rates and gradual midlevel moistening within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight/early Tuesday from southeast AZ into southwest NM. Otherwise, the threat for isolated lightning flashes over the TX/LA coasts will end as convection along a surface cold front continues to shift slowly southeastward to the shelf waters. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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