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SPC Jan 2, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and
coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level
jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf
of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise
forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters,
north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most
global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to
indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced
offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf
Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing
to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still
appears low.

Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and
early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures
aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move
from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should
keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse.

..Gleason.. 01/02/2024

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