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SPC Jan 2, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook


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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the
southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL
Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along
this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears low over this area. In
its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much
of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of
appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop
for a large majority of the CONUS, with a couple of possible
exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX.

A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale
ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even
though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture
quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest
daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated,
low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level
temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough.
Other thunderstorms also appear possible late Thursday night into
early Friday morning across a small portion of coastal TX as greater
low-level moisture begins to return northward across this area.

..Gleason.. 01/02/2024

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