Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 2 Administrators Share Posted January 2 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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