Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 2 Administrators Share Posted January 2 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the central CONUS, with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs over the southern Plains, is forecast to move eastward across the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys on Day 4/Friday. Similar to prior systems, low-level mass response should encourage the northward advance of low-level moisture across the northern Gulf of Mexico and immediate coastal areas of TX/LA/MS/AL. While both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong with this system, current expectations are that appreciable surface-based instability should struggle to reach very far inland. This will probably tend to limit the spatial extent of any severe risk over land Friday afternoon through Friday night from parts of coastal TX to the central Gulf Coast states. Still, a marginal/isolated severe risk may exist across these areas, and low severe probabilities may need to be included in a future outlook. Some severe threat may persist into Day 5/Saturday across parts of the Southeast as the upper trough and related surface low/cold front continue quickly east-northeastward. But, uncertainty regarding sufficient instability given poor lapse rates and modest low-level moisture precludes introduction of a severe area at this time. In the wake of this system, minimal severe potential is evident across the CONUS for Day 6/Sunday. Medium-range deterministic and ensemble guidance show remarkably good agreement that another upper trough will both strengthen and amplify as it ejects across the southern Plains and Southeast early next week. Impressive wind fields at low/mid levels should easily support severe thunderstorms wherever sufficient low-level moisture can advance inland of a deepening surface low. There is still some uncertainty with both how quickly rich low-level moisture will be able to return northward from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of TX and the lower MS Valley, and how far north it will reach. Regardless, it appears probable that enough boundary-layer instability will be present/develop on Day 7/Monday and Monday night over parts of coastal/east TX into LA, southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle to justify introducing a 15% severe area. Adjustments to this area will likely be needed in the coming days as confidence increases in the northward extent of appreciable low-level moisture. But, given the very strong forecast shear, supercells and line segments capable of producing both tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible. This severe threat may continue farther east into Day 8/Tuesday from parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, but too much uncertainty regarding destabilization currently exists to include a severe delineation across this region. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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