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SPC Jan 2, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas
during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through
Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible
along the coast of northern California.

...Synopsis...
A mid to upper-level trough initially over NM and northern Mexico
will move east across TX during the period.  Upstream of the TX
disturbance, a potent mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will
move eastward reaching the Sierra Nevada by early Wednesday morning.
In the low levels, surface high pressure centered over the Mid South
will move little during the period as weak surface reflection occurs
near the TX coast in response to the approaching mid-level wave.  A
still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of Mexico will likely
penetrate the immediate middle and lower coasts of TX with scant
instability farther northwest over central TX.  Models indicate
elevated instability (MUCAPE 100-500 J/kg) north of a developing
cold front that is forecast to push east of the coast during the
evening.  A corridor of developing showers and a few thunderstorms
will shift east from central TX through the TX coast and the
southern half of LA tonight, and severe thunderstorm activity is not
forecast.

..Smith.. 01/02/2024

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