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SPC Jan 2, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Central/Eastern Gulf Coast States...
A southern-stream shortwave trough should gradually dampen as it
progresses from the northwest Gulf Coast to off the South Atlantic
Coast by 12Z Thursday. Guidance is rather consistent that rich
low-level moisture will remain confined offshore across the northern
Gulf, suggesting prospects will be slim for SBCAPE over land. Weak
elevated buoyancy may support sporadic thunderstorms shifting from
west to east through the period. The greatest thunder probabilities
are across southeast LA early, with low chances farther east as the
bulk of deep convection is expected to remain across the
north-central to northeast Gulf. 

...Coastal CA and AZ/NM...
The southern one of the pair of shortwave impulses over the West
Coast States should dig slightly as it progresses across the Lower
CO Valley into AZ by early Thursday. Relatively cold mid-level
temperatures from -25 to -30 C near 500 mb will expand/shift south
and overlap scant surface-based buoyancy amid west-northwesterly
low-level flow along the CA coast. This may yield very isolated
thunderstorm coverage shifting from north to south, mainly during
the first half of the period. 

The modest amplification of the shortwave trough on Wednesday night
should strengthen large-scale ascent for low-topped convection
across a portion of AZ to west NM. Scant buoyancy may support
sporadic lightning flashes.

..Grams.. 01/02/2024

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