Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 3 Administrators Share Posted January 3 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for today and tonight will primarily be driven by two upper lows as they traverse the northern Gulf Coast and the lower Colorado River Valley regions. Meager buoyancy is expected to modulate the potential for organized convection for most locations, with perhaps the exception of the FL west coast. ...Gulf Coast/FL West Coast.. The first of these waves is noted in water-vapor imagery over central TX with an attendant surface low beginning to deepen off the TX Gulf Coast. Objective analyses and surface observations show a broad baroclinic zone - the remnants of a prior frontal intrusion into the Gulf/FL peninsula - draped to the east/southeast. The surface low is forecast to propagate along this effective warm front across the northern Gulf over the next 24 hours, reaching the FL west coast by early Thursday morning. Robust convection attendant to the low appears probable over the Gulf given strong (45-55 knots at 500 mb) flow aloft and recent radar trends. However, 00 UTC soundings across FL sampled an anomalously dry air mass (PWAT values well below the 10th percentile for early January) as a result of the recent frontal intrusion. While some moistening is expected to occur through the day ahead of the approaching low, establishing a quality warm sector inland prior to the arrival of stronger ascent seems unlikely. This idea is reflected in latest CAM ensemble guidance as convective signatures diminish with landfall, suggesting that the potential for organized convection over land is low. That said, a few forecast soundings hint that adequate low-level theta-e may materialize along the immediate FL west coast (including the Tampa Bay area) to support strong, surface-based convection. Given the aforementioned kinematics, this suggests a conditional threat for an organized cell or two. This potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities, but low-level theta-e trends will be monitored. ...California into AZ/NM... Cooler temperatures aloft and strong ascent associated with the upper low over the eastern Pacific are currently supporting sporadic lightning flashes off and along the northern CA coast. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to differential temperature advection and broadscale ascent, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture, is expected to support marginal instability in the vicinity of the upper trough as it shifts to the east/southeast over the next 24 hours. Consequently, isolated lightning flashes seem probable along the CA coast, across parts of southern NV, and over AZ/western NM through early Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/03/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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