Jump to content
  • Forum Image

SPC Jan 3, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Administrators
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday night through early
Saturday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast states.

...Central Gulf Coast...
An upper trough initially over the central CONUS should generally
move eastward across the lower MS, TN, and OH Valleys on Friday. An
embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance
northeastward from coastal/southeast TX towards the central Gulf
Coast states by Friday evening. At the surface, a weak low should
consolidate over the northwest Gulf of Mexico through the day, and
eventually develop slightly inland across parts of southeastern LA,
southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle Friday night into early
Saturday morning.

Elevated convection should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of
coastal TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should
quickly shift east-northeastward across southern LA and adjacent
Gulf waters through Friday evening while remaining primarily
elevated over land. Eventually, sufficient low-level moisture (low
60s surface dewpoints) should be in place across parts of the
central Gulf Coast ahead of the low to support surface-based
convection. Even though instability is expected to remain fairly
weak, 45-60 kt of effective bulk shear and strong low-level shear
associated with a stout southerly low-level jet should aid in
convective organization. Some potential for pre-frontal supercells
may exist in a narrow corridor over land, along with
cold-front-related convection as the surface low develops
east-northeastward. Given the strength of the forecast shear and
low-level winds, both damaging winds and tornadoes appear possible.
However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how
far inland the low to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints will
advance. Therefore, have included a portion of the central Gulf
Coast in low severe probabilities for now.

..Gleason.. 01/03/2024

Read more

View the full article

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Who's Online   0 Members, 0 Anonymous, 5 Guests (See full list)

    • There are no registered users currently online


×
×
  • Create New...