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SPC Jan 3, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z


Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the
southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL
Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along
this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears generally low. In its
wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of
the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable
low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large
majority of the CONUS, with two possible exceptions over the
southern Plains and coastal TX.

A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale
ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even
though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture
quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest
daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated,
low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level
temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. A
separate area of thunderstorms also appears possible late Thursday
night into early Friday morning across portions of coastal TX, as
greater low-level moisture begins to return northward and weak
MUCAPE develops across this area.

..Gleason.. 01/03/2024

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