Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 3 Administrators Share Posted January 3 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday night through early Saturday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast... An upper trough initially over the central CONUS should generally move eastward across the lower MS, TN, and OH Valleys on Friday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to advance northeastward from coastal/southeast TX towards the central Gulf Coast states by Friday evening. At the surface, a weak low should consolidate over the northwest Gulf of Mexico through the day, and eventually develop slightly inland across parts of southeastern LA, southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle Friday night into early Saturday morning. Elevated convection should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of coastal TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This activity should quickly shift east-northeastward across southern LA and adjacent Gulf waters through Friday evening while remaining primarily elevated over land. Eventually, sufficient low-level moisture (low 60s surface dewpoints) should be in place across parts of the central Gulf Coast ahead of the low to support surface-based convection. Even though instability is expected to remain fairly weak, 45-60 kt of effective bulk shear and strong low-level shear associated with a stout southerly low-level jet should aid in convective organization. Some potential for pre-frontal supercells may exist in a narrow corridor over land, along with cold-front-related convection as the surface low develops east-northeastward. Given the strength of the forecast shear and low-level winds, both damaging winds and tornadoes appear possible. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how far inland the low to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints will advance. Therefore, have included a portion of the central Gulf Coast in low severe probabilities for now. ..Gleason.. 01/03/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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