Jump to content
  • Forum Image

SPC Jan 3, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Administrators
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An isolated/marginal severe threat may continue across parts of
FL/GA on Day 4/Saturday as a weak surface low and embedded shortwave
trough advance northeastward over the Southeast and western
Atlantic. But, both low-level moisture and related instability
currently appear too limited to justify a 15% severe delineation for
Saturday. Low severe potential is evident across the CONUS on Day
5/Sunday in the wake of a cold front that will clear the East Coast
and much of the FL Peninsula.

Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northward in earnest on Day
6/Monday over the northern Gulf of Mexico as another upper
trough/low digs eastward over the southern Plains and eventually
ejects across the lower/mid MS Valley. With a prior frontal passage
occurring, there is still some uncertainty with how far inland rich
low-level moisture will be able to advance. Still, most guidance
suggests that at least low 60s surface dewpoints should be present
ahead of a deepening surface low and related dryline/cold front from
parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast
states beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday
night. With strong low-level and deep-layer shear expected, both
supercells and line segments capable of producing tornadoes,
damaging winds, and hail may occur. No changes have been made to the
15% severe area for Monday and Monday night that extends from parts
of east TX into LA, southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, as latest
guidance continues to suggest this region will have the best chance
of boundary-layer destabilization and surface-based convection.

At least an isolated severe risk will probably persist into Day
7/Tuesday across some portion of the Southeast. Medium-range
guidance remains in good agreement that a deep, mature cyclone will
continue to quickly advance over the eastern CONUS. Still, too much
uncertainty currently exists regarding the quality of low-level
moisture and the potential for even weak destabilization to justify
a 15% severe area on Tuesday.

Read more

View the full article

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Who's Online   0 Members, 0 Anonymous, 6 Guests (See full list)

    • There are no registered users currently online


×
×
  • Create New...