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SPC Jan 3, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Gulf Coast/Florida Peninsula...
A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over the ArkLaTex/east
Texas early today will continue eastward over the Gulf Coast States
and reach the coastal Southeast tonight. The majority of convection
related to this system will be focused over the Gulf of Mexico, such
as is occurring this morning across the northwest Gulf of Mexico
toward the middle Gulf Coast. This is where the richer maritime air
will be relegated to, with limited opportunity for a meaningful
influx of low-level moisture into inland areas of the region. 

One potential exception may be late tonight into the
west-central/southwest Gulf Coast of Florida, where weak frontal
wave development may occur across the middle part of the Peninsula
as the front moves inland. However, it is worth noting the
antecedent dryness of the boundary layer across the Florida
Peninsula, with surface dewpoints commonly in the 40s F and very low
Precipitable Water values noted in 12z observed soundings. Current
thinking is that inland moistening/destabilization will remain
limited late tonight, although a few stronger/organized storms could
conceivably persist offshore toward the Tampa/St. Petersburg general
vicinity toward/after midnight EST. Severe probabilities do not
currently appear warranted, but observational trends/guidance will
be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks.

...Southwest States...
Steepening lapse rates coupled with a modest influx of mid-level
maritime moisture is expected to support marginal instability in
vicinity of the east/southeastward-shifting upper trough through
tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible mainly along
the southern California coast and across parts of southern Nevada
today, as well as parts of Arizona and western New Mexico tonight.

..Guyer.. 01/03/2024

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