Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 3 Administrators Share Posted January 3 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Gulf Coast/Florida Peninsula... A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over the ArkLaTex/east Texas early today will continue eastward over the Gulf Coast States and reach the coastal Southeast tonight. The majority of convection related to this system will be focused over the Gulf of Mexico, such as is occurring this morning across the northwest Gulf of Mexico toward the middle Gulf Coast. This is where the richer maritime air will be relegated to, with limited opportunity for a meaningful influx of low-level moisture into inland areas of the region. One potential exception may be late tonight into the west-central/southwest Gulf Coast of Florida, where weak frontal wave development may occur across the middle part of the Peninsula as the front moves inland. However, it is worth noting the antecedent dryness of the boundary layer across the Florida Peninsula, with surface dewpoints commonly in the 40s F and very low Precipitable Water values noted in 12z observed soundings. Current thinking is that inland moistening/destabilization will remain limited late tonight, although a few stronger/organized storms could conceivably persist offshore toward the Tampa/St. Petersburg general vicinity toward/after midnight EST. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted, but observational trends/guidance will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ...Southwest States... Steepening lapse rates coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture is expected to support marginal instability in vicinity of the east/southeastward-shifting upper trough through tonight. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible mainly along the southern California coast and across parts of southern Nevada today, as well as parts of Arizona and western New Mexico tonight. ..Guyer.. 01/03/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.