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SPC Jan 3, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...FL Gulf coast tonight...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the
Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with
only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave.  The majority
of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain
offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector
expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight.  Still,
marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to
limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level
shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken.  A strong storm might
approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too
limited to justify adding an outlook area.

...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight...
Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be
possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association
with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel
thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern
CA toward southern NV.  Isolated lightning flashes will also be
possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel
vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. 
Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning
flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent
preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ.

..Thompson/Squitieri.. 01/03/2024

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