SPC Jan 3, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion...
No appreciable changes warranted this outlook with prior reasoning
still valid. Based on latest observations, only minor trimming
appears warranted to the western portion of the CA thunder lines.

..Grams.. 01/03/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024/

...FL Gulf coast tonight...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue eastward over the
Gulf coast today and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight, with
only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel wave.  The majority
of the surface warm sector with the Gulf coast trough will remain
offshore, with only a small part of the unstable warm sector
expected to reach the west central FL coast tonight.  Still,
marginal midlevel lapse rates and low-level moistening will tend to
limit buoyancy over land, which will be greatest after low-level
shear and forcing for ascent begin to weaken.  A strong storm might
approach the Tampa area tonight, but the severe threat appears too
limited to justify adding an outlook area.

...Southern CA/NV into AZ through tonight...
Low-topped convection with isolated lightning flashes will be
possible today along the central/southern CA coasts in association
with relatively steep low-midlevel lapse rates beneath the midlevel
thermal trough, as the midlevel trough moves from central/southern
CA toward southern NV.  Isolated lightning flashes will also be
possible with pockets of weak destabilization as the midlevel
vorticity center moves over southern NV this afternoon/evening. 
Midlevel cooling/moistening could also support isolated lightning
flashes with weak convection overnight in the zone of ascent
preceding the midlevel trough over southeast AZ.

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