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SPC Jan 3, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday.

...TX vicinity...
A pronounced shortwave trough over AZ will move east into the
southern Great Plains through early Friday. Forcing for ascent
driven by mid-level height falls ahead of this wave in conjunction
with steep mid-level lapse rates may compensate for limited
low-level moisture to yield scant elevated buoyancy. Sporadic
lightning flashes will be possible within a confined convective band
from east NM to central TX, although overall coverage should remain
very isolated. 

Greater thunder potential will occur early Friday morning towards
the TX coastal plain as low-level warm theta-e advection yields
increasing moisture from the western Gulf. This activity should
remain elevated over land, with minor surface cyclogenesis
anticipated just offshore in the northwest Gulf. A weak supercell is
possible along the immediate middle/upper TX Gulf Coast vicinity
towards 12Z, but the bulk of intensifying deep convection should
remain offshore.

..Grams.. 01/03/2024

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