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SPC Jan 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion...
Little thunderstorm activity is ongoing across the CONUS this
evening, with only isolated flashes noted around Las Vegas NV, close
to the upper low. The 00Z VEF sounding shows steep lapse rates
through a deep layer, supporting this activity despite 30s F
dewpoints. Additional low-topped convection will be possible
overnight as the upper low continues east across AZ, with cooling
aloft resulting in minimal destabilization. 

Elsewhere, weak convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
expected to wane through tonight, as lift related to an associated
shortwave trough shifts northeast. The 00Z TBW sounding shows zero
MUCAPE, along with very dry air just above the surface. As such,
isolated flashes are expected to remain mainly offshore, with only a
very low chance near or just south of the Tampa Bay area ahead of
the existing storms over the Gulf of Mexico.

..Jewell.. 01/04/2024

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