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SPC Jan 4, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general
thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough
that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal
deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong,
cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western
TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening
lapse rates.

The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe)
potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending
southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor
trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough,
though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop
into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday.

Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of
steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here,
sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening.

A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight
and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e
plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary
layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak
instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is
not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear.

..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024

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