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SPC Jan 4, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z


Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday
across parts of Florida and southern Georgia.

Within broad large-scale upper troughing over much of the
central/eastern CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough should move
quickly northeastward over parts of the Southeast and East Coast
states. A weak surface low near southern GA/north FL Saturday
morning is likewise forecast to develop rapidly northeastward
through the day along and near the coast of SC/NC. Low to mid 60s
surface dewpoints should be present along/south of an effective warm
front located over southern GA and north FL.

While lapse rates aloft are expected to remain generally poor,
modest daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should yield
weak instability ahead of a cold front through Saturday afternoon.
Enhanced mid-level flow and sufficient deep-layer shear should also
be in place to support thunderstorm organization. A broken line of
convection may be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of
the FL Panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This activity
should spread inland across much of FL and southern GA through
Saturday afternoon, while posing an isolated risk for damaging winds
as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. Even though low-level
flow will have a tendency to veer to a more westerly component
though the day, sufficient low-level shear should also be in place
for some tornado threat. Low severe probabilities have been included
to account for this potential, but the lack of stronger forecast
instability limits confidence in the overall intensity and coverage
of these possible strong to severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 01/04/2024

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