Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 4 Administrators Share Posted January 4 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered general thunderstorms are mostly likely overnight into parts of eastern Texas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest will be a prominent shortwave trough that will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains, with minimal deepening through 12Z Friday. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved midlevel speed max that will nose into western TX during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. The primary mitigating factor to thunderstorm (and certainly severe) potential will be the presence of a large surface ridge extending southward from a Midwestern high. This will result in poor trajectories for moisture return ahead of the shortwave trough, though a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely develop into the western Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Friday. Over land, only weak elevated instability is forecast, by virtue of steepening lapse rates aloft, from NM into central TX. Here, sporadic weak convection will be possible through evening. A greater chance of general thunderstorms will develop late tonight and into Friday morning as lift interacts with an elevated theta-e plume over eastern TX. Forecast soundings show a stable boundary layer with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. Given the weak instability and eventual saturated profiles aloft, severe hail is not currently forecast, despite strong effective shear. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/04/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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